25.03.2017

Research Project “Forecasting the Size and Effects of Emigration and Remittances in Four Western-Balkan Countries” has ended


The project aimed to forecast the size and effects of remittances and emigration in Macedonia, Albania, Serbia and Kosovo, usinga novel method – the Delphi questionnaire.

In particular, the project had the following tasks:
1) provide anoverview of literature on forecasting remittances and emigration
2) collect data through a Delphi questionnaire from economic experts and remittance recipients
3) forecast remittances and emigration based on the data obtained in task 2)
4) provide policy recommendations based on the forecasted trends, and
5) compare forecasted trends among the four countries.

Using a qualitative research method, consensus building was solicited within and between two groups of respondents: ten experts and 20 recipients were consulted per country in three consecutive rounds – two in the same group, and a third cross-round whereby average responses of recipients were given to experts, and vice versa.

The results suggest that remittances in the projected five-year period will increase in Macedonia and Serbia, and drop in Albania and Kosovo. With lower consensus, results forecast that emigration will decelerate in Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo, and accelerate in Serbia by 2021. The effects of emigration on society have been forecasted to be predominantly negative due to skilled labour emigration, while remittances were forecasted to maintain their effect on poverty in Macedonia and Serbia, and weaken in Albania.

In all four countries, experts and recipients were in agreement that remittances will continue to support current consumption only. On the other hand, the Macedonians did not reach consensus on the effect of remittances on the labour market, whereby the experts agreed that remittances would support inactivity, while recipients thought they would foster employment. Consensus was achieved in the other three countries that remittances would support labour-market activity.

The final results were presented at a round table held at the Faculty of Economics in Prilep, Macedonia.

Policy study:
The size and effects of emigration and remittances in the Western-Balkans: Forecasting based on a Delphi process

Infographics:
Идината на дознаките и иселувањето: Може ли да се предвидат?
Predviđanja eksperata i primalaca doznaka o visini i efektima doznaka i emigracije
Parashikimi mbi madhesine dhe efektet e emigracionit dhe remitancave ne Shqiperi
The future of remittances and migration: Are they predictable?

Project website: Forecasting the Size and Effects of Emigration and Remittances in Four Western-Balkan Countries

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26.03.2017

Centre of Excellence on Policymaking Systems in the Western Balkans (CEPS WeB) has been created. The mission of the CEPS WeB is to promote the use of research as the basis for policy- and decision-making in the Western Balkans by providing evidence-based and high-quality contributions to advance the existing policy processes.
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26.03.2017

The project The Impact of the Socio-Economic Structure of Rural Population on the Success of Rural Development Policy provides evidence-based understanding of the farmers’ behaviour and their interpersonal relation with other farmers. The research results show that there is a lack of skills and knowledge that needs to be addressed by training and a lessons learned campaign.
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26.03.2017

The research project The Impact of Fiscal Decentralisationon Local Economic Development in Serbia and Montenegro analysed and evaluated financial flows between central and local governments, and assessed the impact of the existing fiscal decentralisation model on the local economic development in both countries. The results are available online.
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25.03.2017

Research results of the project Care for the Carers: Policy Analysis of Informal Care Provision in Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina have been published recently. The objective of the project was to analyse the informal long-term care system focusing on informal carers, as well as policy advocacy efforts in Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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25.03.2017

Economic Research and Policy Institute Finance Think Skopje in cooperation with ACSER Albania and FREN Serbia used newly created Delphi questionnaire to forecast the size and effects of remittances and emigration in four regional countries. The results suggest that remittances in the projected five-year period will increase in Macedonia and Serbia, and drop in Albania and Kosovo.
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25.03.2017

Research results of the project Migration as Social Protection: Analysis of Macedonian, Albanian and Serbian Remittance-receiving Households are now available online. The research examines how remittances affect various facets of household vulnerability in Macedonia, Albania and Serbia, large recipients of such transfers.
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25.03.2017

Policy brief on the project The Dynamics of Women’s Inclusion in Socio-Economic Life – the Cases of Albania and Macedonia have been published recently. The results confirmed the negative impact of the economic crisis on women’s labour participation.
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25.03.2017

Research Network on Decentralisation and Subnational Governance in Southeast Europe established. The goal of the network is to bring together researchers on decentralisation from SEE for closer cooperation, as well as internal and external networking.
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24.03.2017

The conference on the Challenges of Social Science Research at Western Balkan Universities has ended. The goal of the conference was to examine the problems and identify potential solutions to bridge the obvious gap at universities in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the rest of the region between the working conditions for researchers on the one hand, and the formal requirements for the conferment of academic titles on the other.
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24.03.2017

The project Engendering Forced Migration, Socio-Political Transition and Mental Health in BiH, Serbia, and Kosovo, has come to an end. The list of all outputs and resources prepared during the project is now available online.
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RRPP Local Coordination Unit in Bosnia and Herzegovina organized an event about The Future of Research Impact: New Technologies for Better Promotion and Cooperation. Professor Andy Miah presented a strategic approach to social media and other web-based tools in research promotion and development. Video from the event is now available online.
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20.03.2017

The RRPP-funded research project From Inclusive Identities to Inclusive Societies has recently come to an end. A complex research design intended to explore antecedents and consequences of social identity inclusiveness in a sample of young people from Serbia, Kosovo*, Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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20.03.2017

RRPP Local Coordination Unit in Kosovo in collaboration with the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology of the Republic of Kosovo (MEST) organised a training on Writing Competitive Proposals for EU funded Projects in Prishtina. The goal of the training was to enhance the participants’ skills and knowledge on how to design competitive projects within the scope of the EU calls.
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16.03.2017

On 16 February 2017 the Foundation Open Society Macedonia (FOSM) organised the closing conference Challenges and Opportunities for Scientific Research Funding in the Republic of Macedonia within the RRPP National Policy Dialogue. The aim of the conference was to promote the newly designed model for funding scientific research activity (SRA) in the Republic of Macedonia.
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22.02.2017

The Regional Research Promotion Programme (RRPP) Local Coordination Unit for Bosnia and Herzegovina in cooperation with the University of Banja Luka is organising a conference titled Challenges of Social Science Research at Western Balkan Universities. The conference will be held at the Rectorate of the University of Banja Luka, on 07 March 2017, starting from 09:00.
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09.02.2017

Within the RRPP National Policy Dialogue activities in Macedonia, the Foundation Open Society Macedonia will organise a closing conference titled Challenges and Opportunities for Scientific Research Funding in the Republic of Macedonia.The conference will be held at the Hotel Holiday Inn in Skopje, on 16 February 2017, starting from 12:00.
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01.02.2017

The results of the RRPP-funded research project Courts as Policy-Makers?: Examining the Role of Constitutional Courts as Agents of Change in the Western Balkans have recently been published. The project examines the contribution of constitutional courts to democratic transition in five successor states of the former Yugoslavia: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia and Serbia.
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26.01.2017

Local Coordination Unit of the RRPP for Bosnia and Herzegovina is organising a seminar/workshop followed by a discussion about The Future of Research Impact: New Technologies for Better Promotion and Cooperation. The event will be organised within the National Policy Dialogue in Bosnia and Herzegovina, at hotel Bristol Sarajevo, on 09.02.2017.
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26.01.2016

Centre for Political Courage from Kosovo and Development Solutions Associates from Albania conducted a research titled Mapping Clientelism and its Causes: Rents, Rent-Seeking and Democracy in Kosovo and Albania (1997-2013). The research was funded by the RRPP, and the results, published in the form of policy briefs, are now available online.
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30.12.2016

The research brief Social Capital, Migration, Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance: a Multidisciplinary Evidence from South-East Europe has been published within the RRPP-funded project Social Capital and Migration – Evidence from a Post-conflict Environment. The research identifies common and specific determinants of social capital, as well as similarities and differences between periods of crisis and normality.
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30.12.2016

Between May and December 2016, a series of roundtables on Ethics in Research has been organised at public universities around Albania. The purpose of these events was to present the main findings and recommendations deriving from the analysis undertaken by young researchers, as well as to promote constructive debate among researchers and university management structures.
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