Research Project “Forecasting the Size and Effects of Emigration and Remittances in Four Western-Balkan Countries” has ended
The project aimed to forecast the size and effects of remittances and emigration in Macedonia, Albania, Serbia and Kosovo, usinga novel method – the Delphi questionnaire.
In particular, the project had the following tasks:
1) provide anoverview of literature on forecasting remittances and emigration
2) collect data through a Delphi questionnaire from economic experts and remittance recipients
3) forecast remittances and emigration based on the data obtained in task 2)
4) provide policy recommendations based on the forecasted trends, and
5) compare forecasted trends among the four countries.
Using a qualitative research method, consensus building was solicited within and between two groups of respondents: ten experts and 20 recipients were consulted per country in three consecutive rounds – two in the same group, and a third cross-round whereby average responses of recipients were given to experts, and vice versa.
The results suggest that remittances in the projected five-year period will increase in Macedonia and Serbia, and drop in Albania and Kosovo. With lower consensus, results forecast that emigration will decelerate in Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo, and accelerate in Serbia by 2021. The effects of emigration on society have been forecasted to be predominantly negative due to skilled labour emigration, while remittances were forecasted to maintain their effect on poverty in Macedonia and Serbia, and weaken in Albania.
In all four countries, experts and recipients were in agreement that remittances will continue to support current consumption only. On the other hand, the Macedonians did not reach consensus on the effect of remittances on the labour market, whereby the experts agreed that remittances would support inactivity, while recipients thought they would foster employment. Consensus was achieved in the other three countries that remittances would support labour-market activity.
The final results were presented at a round table held at the Faculty of Economics in Prilep, Macedonia.
The size and effects of emigration and remittances in the Western-Balkans: Forecasting based on a Delphi process
Идината на дознаките и иселувањето: Може ли да се предвидат?
Predviđanja eksperata i primalaca doznaka o visini i efektima doznaka i emigracije
Parashikimi mbi madhesine dhe efektet e emigracionit dhe remitancave ne Shqiperi
The future of remittances and migration: Are they predictable?
Project website: Forecasting the Size and Effects of Emigration and Remittances in Four Western-Balkan Countries